Tuesday Afternoon Linebacker

The 2007 Bucs were a surprise. No one expected them to even compete for a Wild Card berth, but they managed a division championship. Granted, that division championship came at the expense of the reeling Falcons and Panthers and an unfocused Saints team. And some questionable coaching decisions at the end of the year doomed the lads to “one and done” status. We can only hope that the coach has learned from that mistake.

If the season was just 12 games long, most Bucs fans would be ecstatic. Eight dash four through twelve represents a two-fold victory improvement over 2006. With the way the team was playing, and the final four games (Houston, Atlanta, San Francisco, and Carolina) it looked like 12-4 (or at least 11-5) was in sight. But Coach decided to take it easy on his guys during December. The Bucs famously went 1-3 down the stretch, the only victory coming against the rudderless Falcons at home. And, as you know that lackadaisical effort produced a listless playoff appearance and a loss to the Super Bowl bound New York Giants.

On the plus side we found that Jeff Garcia still has something left in his tank. We saw the Bucs’ lose both of their opening game featured backs, only to have the third string guy flirt with 1,000 yards over the course of eleven games. On defense the lads climbed back into the top five again. Young guys like Barrett Ruud and Tanard Jackson made significant contributions alongside stalwart veterans the likes of Derrick Brooks and Ronde Barber.

For all of the disappointment of the playoff loss, there was a lot to look forward to in 2008.

Front Office
The big thing this team needed to do up front was re-sign Monte Kiffin, and that task is complete. After that I think it’s time to extend Gruden’s contract as well. Yes, he’s not exactly popular around here. But the fact of the matter is that the guy won the Super Bowl and three division titles while here. Which makes him, by pretty much every measure the most successful head coach this team has ever had. That being said, there is still work to be done. The team is young right now. There are a couple of gray-beards (pun intended) on the team, but by and large this is a team ready to play together for a decade. The old guys (Galloway, Barber, Brooks, and Garcia in particular) can and should be mentors to the younger players on the team. Teach them the right way to do things. If they can be mentors then this team has a bright future.

Offense
Compared to 2006, this offense got better. The quarterbacks, led by Jeff Garcia, over the course of the season attempted 45 fewer passes in 2007 as compared to 2006 and completed 20 more. They gained nearly 600 more yards, threw TEN fewer interceptions, and took the rock to the house 4 more times. The receivers, of course, benefited at the same rate (+20 receptions, +585 yards, +4 touchdowns).

2007’s leading rusher Earnest Graham gained 100 more yards than 2006’s top runner Cadillac Williams, on three fewer carries. While at the same time producing nine more touchdowns. The same nine touchdowns that the entire rushing corps produced above and beyond 2006’s squad.

The top four runners (Graham, Pittman, Caddy, and Michael Bennett) produced just north of 4 yards per carry this season as a platoon. Alone, only Caddy failed to crest 4.0 ypc, with Bennett piling up 4.7 ypc.

All of that adds up to the reason why this team should be in decent shape next year. The offense is better than it has been since I don’t now when. It had some sputters and stalls throughout the season. But I think that another season with Garcia and the knowledge that we have basically four feature backs should bode well for this team. The concern though is the wide out position. Joey Galloway is getting older. He may still be one of the better WRs in the league, but that won’t last. His skills may be there, but his body can’t take much more I think. The Bucs will select 20th in the 2008 draft, and some draft boards have Cal WR DeSean Jackson still being available around that pick. And Michael Clayton needs to either get better, or get on out.

What to do about the quarterback situation? Jeff Garcia is 37 and will be entering his 14th pro football season next year. While many other quarterbacks have gone on to success at that age, this Bucs fan feel more comfortable with a true heir to the position. Bruce Gradkowski is just plain bad. Or at the very least not a good fit for this offense. Either way, I think he needs to go. Luke McCown, while showing flashes of brilliance, just seems like a journeyman to me. I think the time has come to make a final decision on Chris Simms and his future with this team. With the possibility that Garcia could play 2-4 more good years, and he’s reasonably happy here, the Bucs do have the opportunity to draft a quarterback or pick up a young guy via trade or free agency. Or stick with Simms, for better or for worse. The problem with that is that when Simms would finally step into the starting role (again) he’d likely be closing in on his eighth or ninth year in the league. To give the team any stability at the position, he’d have to have a Favre-ian career where he plays at a high level for much longer than anyone expects. As much as I like Simms (lately) I’m not sure he’s got that in him. Either way, whatever young QB takes over in 2009 or 2010 is going to need us fans and the media to be patient with him. If we’re really fans of the team, we’ll gladly endure a 6-10 season if it gives the future franchise quarterback time to grow into the role.

Defense
Back with a vengeance they were. Barret Ruud and Tanard Jackson, the future of this defense. The only thing the unit didn’t do well this year was rush the passer. Long-time Bucs fans are used to a suffocating pass-rush that never lets up, but it wasn’t there this year. Sure they got to the QB on occasion, but it wasn’t nearly what we’re used to. Keeping Kiffin for another two seasons (and beyond we would hope) should help shore up those holes. Also acquiring a top flight DT in the draft would be nice. Getting more pressure up front will help with the other problem this defense had in 2007, getting off the field on 3rd down.

Special Teams
Micheal Spurlock.

Draft and Free Agency Needs
In my mind, the Bucs need a top tier wide-out AND some speed on the defensive line. After that the most pressing needs seem to be adding depth at DB and LB.

Looking to 2008

To the right you’ll see the Bucs’ 2008 opponents (not including the home-and-home with the Dirty Souf). We’ll face the NFC North and AFC West, which if this year’s performance is any indication of future results, is not that bad of a draw. Granted, the 2007 schedule was as soft as could be. In the division Atlanta should still be in disarray next year, the Saints are questionable, and the Panthers will be better if they get Delhomme back. Unless the Bucs backslide pretty severely, they should get two wins against the Falcons, and probably a split with the other two - leading to a 4-2 division mark. Oakland, Kansas City, Chicago, and Detroit should be wins as well (8-2). The remaining six games look like question marks to me. Though going .500 against the Packers, Vikings, Chargers, Seahawks, Broncos, and Cowboys would lead to an 11-5 season. No too shabby.

The biggest factors in the Bucs’ 2008 success will be consistency on offense and increased pressure from the front four on defense. If this team can get those two things done, then I don’t see any reason whey they won’t repeat as division champs. We can only hope that Gruden learned a lesson about playing to win at the end of the season.