Tuesday Afternoon Linebacker

On Tuesday January 1, 2008 the storied football programs from the University of Florida and University of Michigan will take the field in Orlando. Despite each team’s less than spectacular regular seasons, there is a ton at stake for each squad.

The Seasons
Famously, UM dropped their opening game to Football Championship Subdivision power Appalachian State. They followed up with a beat-down by Dennis Dixon and the Oregon Ducks. From there they ran off eight straight wins before dropping their last two against Wisconsin and hated rival Ohio State. All the while reluctantly carrying the flag for this topsy-turvy season of upsets.

Meanwhile, the defending “Mythical” National Champion Florida Gators started the season with two emotionless wins against cupcakes. The SEC season then started with the Gators administering an old-fashioned beat-down to Tennessee. Gator fans’ apprehension about the young defense and Tim Tebow’s ability to carry the team seemed to have been quelled to some extent. Then the wheels came off. Tim Tebow delivered next week by carrying 1,048 times to rescue the obviously in-over-their-heads defense and lead the team to victory. Due to attrition, the Gators entered the next week at #2, and dropped a heart-breaker to Auburn on the final play. A gusty game by Tebow for Florid and Jacob Hester for LSU was decided as the Florida defense failed to stop LSU on 4th down five times. The next tilt was a shoot-out win Heisman hopeful Andre Woodson and Kentucky. The bleeding would continue the following Saturday as perennial stepping-stone Georgia used their own brand of, ahem, motivation, to roll over the Gators. The last four games would be installments of the Tim Tebow show. Highlighted with his 5 score performance against South Carolina. And closed out with his domination of Florida State.

All the while the Gators, according to the polls at least, were the best team that wouldn’t be part of the MNC discussion. When most teams in contention were still undefeated, there sat Florida with one loss near the top-10. Then when the bar was one loss, twice defeated Florida was nipping at their heels. The final regular season AP poll has Florida at 9th. Compared to 10th ranked and undefeated Hawaii and 11th ranked West Virginia which spent 8 weeks of the season in the top five.

And, of course, Superman took home the Heisman. Broken hand and all.

The Motivations
Michigan’s long time coach Lloyd Carr announced his retirement recently. The Wolverines will be playing to send him off with a victory. All but the graduating seniors will also be auditioning for new coach Rich Rodriguez. Then there’s that whole Big 10 vs. SEC thing that you might have heard about. Oh, and also you might recall that Michigan partisans were somewhat miffed that the Gators were sent to Arizona last January instead of their team.

The Gators are looking for ten wins. We fans want Tebow to buck the trend of Heisman winners whiffing their next game. The Big 10 vs. SEC again. Michigan was stomped by USC in the Rose Bowl last year, but a win by the Gators would close the book on that whole mess once and for all. And the way this team finishes this year will have a lot to do with how they start next year. Rumblings throughout the ‘Tubes indicate that the Gators are all but a lock for a preseason top five ranking, if not #1 or #2. For whatever that’s worth of course.

The Offenses
Admittedly, I don’t know much about what kind of offense the Wolverines deploy. From the brief glimpses I’ve seen it appears to be what one might call “conventional”. I’m sure it has its wrinkles, but they appear to favor fielding two backs, two wide outs, and a tight end. Please correct me if I’m wrong about any of that. While the offense may lack a clever nickname, it has plenty of power. The squad is led by quarterback Chad Henne and tailback Mike Hart. Hart may be the center of their offense. He trotted for more than 1200 yards and 12 scores. On the perimeter, Mario Manningham hauled in 67 receptions for 1096 yards and took the rock to the house 11 times. The tight end position, however, caught fewer than 30 balls this season.

Florida on the other hand, takes the field with the “Spread Option”. Last year, a hybridized version humiliated fellow Big Ten member Ohio State. This time around the Spread Option is in full bloom with a bruising full-back sized quarterback at the helm. Pick your poison as they say; Tebow up the middle, Tebow around the end, Harvin around the end, Harvin off tackle, Harvin on a swing pass, any receiver over the middle, any receiver down the side-line, the tight end sneaking into the flat, or (rarely this year) the tailback right down your throat. As was demonstrated quite clearly in both the Mississippi and Georgia games; Tebow is the key to this offense. His performance is the difference maker. If he can be kept from running, the opponent has a chance. But if he’s allowed to make positive gains with his legs, woe is the enemy.

The Defenses
The Wolverine’s defense ranks 24th overall, 7th against the pass, and 56th against the run. As Mick Hubert might say, “Oh My!” They’re giving up more than 150 yards per game on the ground. Conversely, they only surrender just south of 180 yards per game through the air. If I were to guess, their defense has to be working on their run stopping. If not, it’s going to be a long day for those fellas. Tebow, Harvin, and Moore will eat them alive if they don’t improve. For comparison FSU’s rushing defense gives up about 40 fewer yards per game, and the Gators rolled up 279 yards on the ground against them. These guys are in trouble. Once the running game gets established and Big Blue brings the eighth guy into the box, the bombs will start flying over their heads.

Florida’s unit is young. I’ll give you that. But they’ve been through 12 big time college football games. If they don’t start playing like veterans in this game, they may never get better. Let’s go to the stat sheets. The Wolverines bring in the nation’s 74th ranked offense. During the season the Gators faced 5 teams (South Carolina, FSU, Ole Miss, Auburn, and Vandy) with lower ranked offenses and allowed 21.8 points. The other 7 teams (Troy, LSU, Kentucky, FAU, Tennessee, Western Kentucky, and Georgia) with statistically better offenses managed an average of… 21.8 points against this Gators defense. That’s consistent, for whatever it’s worth.

The Prediction
While it’s been said that Rich Rodriguez has been advising the Wolverines staff with regards to dealing with the Spread, I can’t imagine they’ll have time to completely retool their defense to stop the Gators. They may be able to slow them at times. Or counter some of the things the Gators usually do. But I’m not counting on them being able to stop everyone every time. I think Florida will jump to an early lead. From there, Tebow will have to keep the ball and the clock moving in order to bail out the defense.

Florida 31 - Michigan 21.8

In Case You Missed The Joke: The title refers to the proliferation of corporate sponsorship deals with bowls and their events. I had toyed with using some diametrically opposed BLAB blogs (such as Out In Left Field and Pekin Prattles for instance) as the “sponsors”, but decided against it as this is a happy-go-lucky sports blog.