Tuesday Afternoon Linebacker

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers started 2005 with hopes of reaching 8-8. Well, any football player will tell you that they are striving to reach the Big Game. But most of them must have thought, deep down, that getting to .500 would be an accomplishment and a nice step on the way back to greatness. At least given the lack of success over the previous two seasons. Then 11-6 happened. An NFC South divisional championship happened. And a young quarterback, left for (football) dead by many, TALB included, stepped up and made this his team.

As the Bucs are likely, without a new CBA, to be in yet another Salary Cap Purgatory this edition of the Post-Mortem will focus a lot on salary numbers. The Trib has a list of who might not be around next year due to the cap problems. Without the new Agreement, the Bucs are going to be between $19-21M over the projected $95M cap. A new CBA might have raised the cap by $10M. Still a problem, but not quite as bad as it is now.

And let me apologize right away for the rambling nature and sometimes abrupt change in subject you will find below. I’ve been hacking at this since the Bucs’ season ended. Which means that something I wrote in January may not be true in March. And add in the topsy-turvy CBA news and things are kind of crazy.

Positional Analysis
Quarterback
Gruden wants to keep both Simms and Griese. Chris Simms should start training camp as the starter. I don’t think there can be any question about that at this point. Brian Griese’s future with the Bucs has a lot to do with his contract.

Simms will be a restricted free-agent this year. Expect the Bucs to lock him up with a nice deal within the next few weeks (Simms signed on March 1st for one year at $2.1M). And Griese is due to count $7.1M against the cap for 2006. If he can’t or won’t re-do his deal, expect a trade or out-right release. The tenuous nature of the NFL’s labor agreement will make 2006 a free agency nightmare for players.

As evidenced over the course of 2005, good quarterbacking is rare commodity in the NFL. There could be some team (Arizona, New York Jets, Detroit…) that would be willing to part with a nice draft pick or three for a guy like Griese. Personally, TALB would prefer that Griese would prefer to re-sign at a lower number in order to stay with the team. He has proven his ability to run this offense proficiently and having him as a backup would only help our chances in 2006. But again, given that this year’s free agency period will be a buyers’ market don’t expect much trading.

As for the third spot… Luke McCown and Tim Rattay are on the roster right now, and both are under contract. Also, if Griese is let go one of these guys could step into the second spot. Rattay is due to make $1.25M in regular compensation for 2006 while McCown is around $500k. Rattay is likely to be trade bait as he does have extensive starting experience. Plus he carries a huge contract for a third quarterback. TALB expects the Bucs to either restructure Rattay and release McCown or trade Rattay and keep McCown. Either way, also expect a couple guys to come in for camp.

Running Back
Cadillac, for shizzle. A-Number-One guy right there. Pittman, if he wishes to stay, might also be asked to restructure. Though $1.5M in base salary isn’t that bad for a guy with his skills, even as a backup. The team will of course take a look at a few guys in camp, but Williams and Pittman are the men at the tailback spot for this team. Pittman though will be asked to re-do his deal as his cap number is way to high for his role. Though he has expressed a desire to finish out his career here in Tampa.

Unlike this time last year, the future of Mike Alstott in Tampa is entirely up to him. Even though his yardage numbers were minuscule his impact on offense in 2005 cannot be denied. TALB, for one, hopes the A-Train makes one more run next year and goes out on top. Alstott, like Pittman, has a big cap number as compared to his role. And also like Pittman, he is willing to work out a deal to stay in town.

And at running back most especially, the FA market will be flooded with players (E. James, S. Alexander, etc), so it will be tough for a player like Alstott to find work. He’s on the back-side of his career and has become a role player rather than a featured guy. Pittman could start somewhere, but the question is where? And will any team pay him what he likely wants? Maybe that’s wishful thinking on my part, but the way things are in the league right now I can’t see either Pittman or Alstott cashing in with some other team.

Update: Pittman has redone his deal and will stay with the team.

Wide Receiver
Once Mike Clayton figures out what happened to him in 2005 we’re going to be pretty good on the edges. Clayton and Gallowy equals crazy touchdown-licious. If we can keep both on the team plus keep guys like Shepherd and Hilliard things should be okay next year. Again, expect a few guys to show up for camp to compete.

Remember those rumors that the Bucs might sign TO? I for one am glad that it was all talk.

Tight End
Alex Smith, TE had a much better year than Alex Smith, QB. Our man Smith recorded his first NFL score five seconds into the second quarter of the first game of the season, while the Overall Number One Pick had to wait until 14:42 had elapsed in the second quarter of the last game of the season to get his first. What does this have to do with the Bucs’ tight ends? Nothing really. But it’s fun to show just how much of a crap shoot the NFL Draft can be at times.

Anyway. Alex Smith (ours) has tremendous “upside” and with guys like Dave Moore and Becht on the team we should be good here as well. Smith should become the full time starter for 2006.

Offensive Line
What can you say about these guys? They look like a championship unit one week, then like the Keystone Kops the next. For what it’s worth, they did start all 16 games together this year. Hopefully we can keep them all for next year and keep that mojo going. Continuity is the key to a good offensive line. Dan Buenning may turn out to be the Paul Gruber type guy I talked about last year. But, it can’t hurt to bring in a few guys to vie for roster spots. This is not a perfect O-Line by any stretch of the imagination, so any competition can only make it better. And with the way Cadillac runs now, imagine how much better he’ll do with a line that can really open up holes.

If un-restricted free-agent Kenyatta Walker leaves TALB will have mixed feelings. He has improved as a player over the last season or two, but on the other hand he’s still not all the way there. And for a first round pick that’s not good enough.

Defensive Line
Simeon and Booger are both looking at big cap numbers for 2006. Which means they are also looking at their future with the team. On the bright side, the second team players did quite well when they were pressed into action this year. It could prove difficult to get both Booger and Rice under contracts that jibe with the salary cap for next year. TALB would advise, should anyone ask, that the team focus on Rice instead of Booger in that case. He’s proven to be more disruptive in the passing game and has improved his run-stopping abilities over the last few seasons. While Booger has mostly just taken up space. But if Bruce Allen can somehow get them both on board for a good number, then all the better. And getting Chris Hovan under contract will be key to keeping the line at the same elite level.

Update: Booger has also redone his deal (same story as above).

Line Backer
55 is also due a huge number next season and will be asked to re-do his deal. TALB thinks this is a no-brainer and will happen. It is just a matter of when. But we must all prepare ourselves for the day he does leave the team (I would wager he’ll play two more seasons). Last year’s pick of Barrett Ruud was hailed by many as a great choice. And so far they have been right. He’s played well in relief and on special teams. We should continue to be strong at this position for the foreseeable future.

As for why TALB thinks Brooks will stay around; look at the environment. That darn CBA is going to, in my opinion, force teams to pretty much maintain the status quo. A ton of older or less productive players will hit the waiver wire, but the cores of most teams will be kept in place simply because most teams cannot afford marquee free-agents. If Derrick is truly looking for just a payday what are his options? Minnesota, Arizona, Green Bay, and Cleveland are all $20M or more under the cap. Those teams could make the biggest moves during free-agency. Does he want to leave a playoff contending team for any of those four?

No, he doesn’t. Our Favorite Player has restructured, freeing up much needed space under the (presumed) 2006 salary cap. This move should ensure that Mr. Brooks remains with the Bucs until he retires. Also of note is that this new space (as the article mentions) should make room for guys like Alstott, Hovan, and even Greise to stay aboard should they so desire.

Defensive Backfield
Like Brooks, Ronde Barber is getting long in the tooth and will probably hang it up in the next couple of years. Besides him though, what do we have back there? A rag tag group of guys who played well sometimes and were burned like a British tourist on Clearwater Beach a lot of times. Dexter Jackson, Brian Kelly, and Jermaine Phillips are still pretty good. Bolden and Allen are doing okay too. But I don’t remember any two consecutive games that the same four guys started. We can definitely use more depth here and do what ever we can to avoid injuries.

Special Teams
Matt Bryant got the job done. What more can you say about your place kicker? And I think that punter guy of ours had a decent season didn’t he? Kick coverage was meh. We let a few through at key times, but were able to keep returns down a lot of the time. For next year it would seem that Jones and Pittman are the guys we should send back. Pittman nearly broke two kick off returns in the playoff game and Jones was a monster on punt returns.

Coaching
Monte Kiffin decided to stick around a little longer. We lost Rod Marinelli to the Lions. And a hand full of other assistants headed off to greener pastures. This is what being successful brings.

The Draft
Offensive line should be a top priority; along with adding depth at LB and DB. A late round QB could be a good pick too. It would gives Gruden the chance to have two young signal callers to mold. If there is a good fullback out there we could use a pick on him. Jameel Cook is okay, but with Alstott leaving soon it can’t hurt to bring in a couple of guys.

Free Agency
See above. Honestly, we need guys all over to add to depth. Free agents can sometimes be a ton cheaper than draft picks for equivalent skill sets. Though with our tenuous salary cap situation we don’t want to go nuts with high dollar “stars”. Though with the recent spate of restructuring among Bucs veterans the team might be able to pick up a few quality players.

2006 Outlook
The schedule, in the light of 2005, looks challenging. We’ll face our six contests against the South as usual. Then we’ll have Seattle, Washington, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Baltimore at home. And head out of town to face Dallas, Chicago, Pittsburgh, the Giants, and Cleveland. There are eight games against 2005 playoff teams (2xCAR, CIN, SEA, WAS, @CHI, @NYG, and @PIT), with 4 of those at home and four on the road. It will be a daunting task for sure.

How the final schedule shakes out is going to have a lot to do with how the team fares. If the team is able to get some “winnable” games early (say… @CLE, BAL, NO, @ATL) to boost their confidence they should do okay. On the other hand if they’re tossed into a meat grinder (maybe… @PIT, @NYG, CAR, SEA) and can come out of that kind of thing with 2 or 3 wins they could be unstoppable. Or they’ll go 0-4 and be in a huge hole.

One thing that has me worried is the real possibility that the Bucs could open the season on Thursday night. The last few years the NFL has had the defending champs host this kick-off game. And after taking a look at the Steelers’ home opponents TALB thinks the Bucs are near the top of the list to be that first opponent. I think Denver is the most likely candidate, but the Bucs (being a playoff team) could be second or third on that list.

I’d like to see a schedule kind of like this:
1 SEA
2 NO
3 @CAR
4 PHI
5 @ATL*
6 @CHI*
7 -bye-
8 WAS
9 CIN
10 @CLE
11 @NO
12 CAR
13 @PIT*
14 BAL
15 ATL
16 @DAL
17 @NYG*

* Possible primetime games.

This is pretty balanced I think. It’s not worth a damn, but would be nice if something close to this schedule came about.

With a nice favorable schedule like my prediction I could see 11-5 easily. If we get the short end of the stick 8-8 might be all the lads can muster. Based on what I know, right now, Tuesday March 7, 2006 the only team on our schedule that I think the Bucs can’t beat is Pittsburgh. Carolina, Seattle, and Atlanta will be tough for sure, but we can beat them. But TALB would not be foolish enough to predict a 16-0 or 15-1 season for this team. Go Bucs!

See you in a couple weeks to talk about the NFL CBA, free agency, the draft, spring practice at college, and whatever else comes up in the world of football before the end of March.